Wednesday, 31 March 2010

Some TA on the GBPCHF from this morning.

A short video that I did on my continued TA analysis development skills. This time on the GBPCHF.

This video highlights what I think of the price action on the chart, and the different scenarios I see unfolding, and how I would plan to trade them.

update on EURJPY

Looking at my EJ chart this morning, the overnight price has pretty much moved sideways still at the 125.00 level. A core swing setup has developed and triggered long, so currently Scenario 3 is looking like it is going to play out...but...having looked back at the chart for the previous time price was at this level, when price did ultimately make what turned out to be a false breakout of the 125.00 level, it moved to 126.00 area before coming back under 125.00.

So with that in mind, I have ammended my view on scenario 3 targets. If this does turn out to be a false break out, I am removing 2/3rds of my swing trade at T1, which for me is entry +50, as the 2nd swing target would be just past the 126.00 area. So the last part of my trade can have the stop moved to B/E, then see where it goes.

Entry long based of my FurQuad Core setup.

T1 = +50points then move stop on last part to entry

Remaining part of trade open to see if it can reach T2 or T3.

2nd update

I can't tell you how chuffed I am that my analysis seems to be paying off on this pair.

Price has moved as I wanted in the above update, and I now have my last 3rd of my swing position open, and stop at entry.

It might not be the highest pip count i've had, but it's by far and away the best trade I've ever made in my life, for the simple fact I analysed the chart, and gave my self 3 solid options of what could happen, and as a result it was the most relaxed trade I think I've made.

I big turning point for me in my trading. It feeds my confidence in being able to do something that only a few weeks ago thought was about as likely to happen as me waking up and being able to speak Mandarin.

Fingers crossed this wasn't a fluke

Tuesday, 30 March 2010

A little bit a TA on the EURJPY

So as my quest for a more rounded look at the charts continues, and I slowly get my eyes and my mind used to looking for multiple scenarios that could unfold, I have extended my analysis on to my EURJPY chart. This one is completely independent of anyones input. It is solely me trying to apply what I've been doing on the GBPUSD, to another chart.

The EURJPY has been hovering around the 125.00 level now since the start of play Monday, and has been very whippy for me. Setting up numerous swing trades, and stopping me out.

Scenario 1
Looking for history to repeat itself. Looking at the 125.00 price has previously attempted to punch through that price on 5 seperate occasions now, and with each attempt I think the resistance gets stronger. Following each attempt price then quickly ran away from that level as if scared to death of being there. So my downside prediction is a quick move down the 122.0 level which looking across the chart has been a holding point before further movement. On the way down price should be able to collect all 3 swing targets. (prediction: this is the scenario I am most likely leaning towards if the past is anything to go off)

Scenario 2
Price could continue to move around at this level for another few weeks unless any news comes out that can influence it. Looking back at my chart, the last time price was hanging around at this level like this was back at the beginning of Feb 09, and it bounced off 125.00 a good 4 or 5 times before breaking through. That lasted into the middle of March 09. (prediction: the most unlikely outcome)

Scenario 3
If I see price make a sizeable move up through 125.00 without stopping it could potentially move on up to 127.00 without too much stopping it. That should see me be able to make at least 2 swing targets, possible 3 depending on the entry. (prediction: 2nd favourite option)

So there it is. My attempt at deciphering the code of EURJPY. It feels different knowing that I have 3 different options of what could happen, instead of just trading with blinkers on and wondering why I'm being constantly kicked in the face at a certain price area.

Afternoon update

Just a little late afternoon update of sorts.

I don't think I'll be doing many videos for the next week or so. It's the easter half term holidays here in the UK, and a house full of noisy kids does not a good video make. So I'll have to make do with some good old fashioned written updates.

Today has been an ok day as it stands now.
My GBPCHF trade from yesterday that wasn't doing much, started doing much and hit all 3 swing targets for a +300 point return on that pair.
GBPUSD was finally managed to a close and a +355 point return.
Another stop out on EURJPY. Luckily I managed to get a 1st swing target in first so the down side on that trade was limited to -25 points.
Another intraday trade on GBPUSD presented itself. Swing trade was still open at this time, so intraday only. Managed a 1st target again before the last 2 positions were managed to a stop. So that one netted me a -4 point loss.

As I write this I have a GBPJPY trade open, 2 swing target met for +210 points so far, the last position has been managed to a B/E point, so worst case scenario is +210 points :)
EURUSD swing trade with a 1st target met and 2 positions still open. Another GBPUSD trade, this time swing only as daily ATR has been done. No targets met yet on that one, and a EURJPY trade has just triggered short, so I'll be keeping an eye on that going into the evening.

So all in all a not to bad day. Seen some nice moves after yesterdays slow start.

But now it's time for some Tom Yum with rice noodles, which I've managed to whip up while doing all that as well! lol

Poor start to the week

Well yesterday turned out to be a poor morning and slow afternoon. The only trade of not really was GBPUSD from my video which quickly hit my intraday targets, and a 1st swing target, then spent the rest of the day doing not much.

My other trades, were a little less pleasing. GBPCHF doing nothing much apart from an up bar then a down bar. EURUSD blobbing around, GBPJPY not doing much of anything. Then EURJPY...yesterday this was my nightmare pair. 3 attempts at getting on a position yesterday, and 3 no goes.

But at the time of writing this at 7:30GMT on Tuesday 30th March, things are starting to move in my favour, touch wood!. A few more GBPUSD swing targets hit, and a EURUSD/EURJPY/GBPJPY moving quite nicely. Long may it continue, or at least until my targets have been hit :)

Monday, 29 March 2010

It's nearly easter...time for the eggs :)

As we start the last week of March, we approach easter and all it's chocoaltey goodness :)

This week also sees NFP this Friday, as well as it being good Friday, which is a bank holiday here in the UK. So maybe some quick moves to start the week off, then a slow down. Who knows it could be completely the opposite.

I have done a couple of videos from this morning of my trades that I took at around the 7am GMT time, and a brief reason as to why I took them.

Remember these videos are for my educational purposes only, and I am in no way attempting to give out trading signals, or advise you to follow my trades. I don't even know whether there is anybody reading this blog, as I started purely as a personal online diary type of thing for myself.

Plus I'm playing around with some new screen casting software for my MAC, instead of using Camtasia. It allows me to upload my videos directly to youtube in 720p HD format, which certainly makes them a lot clearer to see.


Best of the rest

Thursday, 25 March 2010

Nearly week end

Ok it's nearing the end of Thursday trading now, and the week is almost in touching distance.

Only one new trade for today which was on the GBPUSD. I was long @ 1.4930. My 3 positions on the intraday part of the trade stopped out for a -15 pip total, and the final 3 parts have now been stopped out for a total of +20 points.

The rest of the day has pretty much been devoted to managing trades that have run over from yesterdays trading, which have gone pretty well to be honest. I'm still slightly down on the week thanks to the horror show that was Tuesdays trading, but Wednesdays trades have followed through nicely.

Below is a quick video of a nice GBPUSD trade from yesterday that netted me a nice total of +90 points.

Wednesday, 24 March 2010

Another week

So I started a new week on the 23rd March, which was a Tuesday. Didn't do any trading at all on Monday as I was running some personal errands all day.

So yesterday was my first day of the week, and what a stinker it was. Full loss after full loss, it was one of those death touch days.
I gave back 50% of last weeks gains in one day, but that's trading. As long as I am making pips at the end of each month that's where it counts.

On to today, Wednesday 23rd March 2010, and as it happens budget day here in the UK. The mornings trading started off as the previous day finished very wishy washy, but as the morning has developed I've seen some of my live trades hit profit levels, and into the early afternoon, price has started to move again. So it looks as though all is not lost for today, but unless something really exciting happens this week is pretty much a catch up and damage limitation week.

Here's a short video of one of my trades this morning on GU

Monday, 22 March 2010

Another record week

Last week was exceptional. I don't expect them to be like that all the time, but when they happen, man oh man!!

I've ended up making over 2000 points by the end of trading last Friday. I couldn't believe it! I had another fantastic start to the week through to Wednesday. Thursday was a poor day. I was down 300 points on the day, then Friday came and BAM!!!!! I was up 1000 points on Friday alone. It was ridiculous. Especially when around lunch time on Friday things weren't looking so good. Price had started to retrace and I was looking down the face of quite a poor end to the week, but at around 2 o'clockish GMT things flipped round and I finished like Usain Bolt!

It made it even more amazing as I ended up going out to Stockport with my girlfriend at half 3 so she could get some new shoes for her new job on Tuesday, and I had to manage my trades from my iPhone in Decathlon.

Well pleased with the weeks results.

With the price movements the last couple of weeks I fully expect this week to quite quiet to start with. As it happens I'm away from the computer today, being Monday 22nd March, as it's a busy day with car MOT's and vets, so I won't be trading at all.

Lets hope that Tuesday is a nice day for me to start the week.

Wednesday, 17 March 2010

Found brilliant free site today called MT4Stats.

It basically plugs straight into MetaTrader and keeps track of all your trades, and then generates a very detailed and comprehensive report breaking your results down into all sorts of different sectors.

Best of all regisration is free. Not a penny :)

MT4Stats Have a look at them.

My personal url for my results is My Page

It gets updated every 5 mins, and shows all my completed trades and current live trades.

Big Decision made

I've pretty much decided now that my future lies solely in my Forex trading for the immediate future. I've invested 2 years in learning and practicing and failing and trying again, and I finally feel like I've actually got to a point where I can make it work now.

To do this I need to focus my time on the trading during normal "working" hours, and I can't remain focused on doing that if come 1:30 or 2:00 each afternoon I'm chopping between Forex and betfair sports trading. It's not going to get me any where on either front. I'm not giving 100% to either, and as a result both would be doomed to failure.

Now, the Forex is a Mon-Fri task, so I do have my weekends free it investigate the sports trading, but the question is do I want to do that after a working week of staring at a computer screen and Forex chart, or do I want to use the weekend to spend some quality time with my family and friends?

At the moment I know what my answer is!

I will be keeping this blog updated, but it will be focused on my Forex trading from now on, so if you are reading this expecting sports exchange trading, unfortunately you won't be seeing that on here any time soon.

Monday, 15 March 2010

Last Weeks results.

Had a cracking week last week on the FX front. Just done my calculations and I ended up 1,080 points up on the week. Now we all know past results are no guarantee of future results, but it's still a nice total for the week.

Trading with £1 per point would have meant a financial gain of £1'080 not inc any commission charges.

But, today is the start of a new week, and just like a football team coming off a 5-0 win, you have to move on and look forward.

Friday, 12 March 2010

Something none trade related

I know this isn't trade related at all, but never the less it's a very good cause that I totally believe in.

Wednesday, 10 March 2010

Slow morning

Didn't do any trading what so ever this morning. I had to take a trip into Manchester with my girlfriend and her sister. To be honest I was glad of the break/fresh air. I've been getting really bad headaches the last few days. The type that paracetamol won't even shift, so I thought the fresh air might do me good.

Got back from town in the early afternoon and had a look at the charts. Fortunately it looks like all I really missed from this morning was some retracements, which is what I predicted would happen after yesterday mornings moves down.

I managed to get trades set up on all but one of my trading pairs, so we'll see how they pan out for the remainder of tonight and into tomorrow. I might try and get a video up later on or tomorrow of a quick run down of things.

Until then, I'll blog you later.

Forex trading

Some videos from my Forex trading from Monday 8th & Tuesday 9th March. It show my trading pairs, and my thoughts on the trades and how they went and why I entered.

The videos are split into 3 parts for ease of viewing.

Tuesday, 9 March 2010

A short break

I've had a short break from the horses while I gather my thoughts. I've been struggling to focus on trading them, with too many distractions around me, when I have traded them I've done poorly primarily due to the things going on around me and the lack of a quiet, specific area to call my trading area.

I'm still trying to get something sorted out, but it's proving tricky.

Wednesday, 3 March 2010

Mid week

Decided to take a few days off from trading the horses on Monday and Tuesday, so today was the first day back, and what a stinker it was. That's all I'm going to say on the subject.

Still been concentrating on my Forex trading as well, but I feel as if some point soon i'm going to need to make a decision as to which one is going to take priority as I just can't focus my full attention between both.

Here's a little video from today's forex trading.