Tuesday, 30 March 2010

A little bit a TA on the EURJPY

So as my quest for a more rounded look at the charts continues, and I slowly get my eyes and my mind used to looking for multiple scenarios that could unfold, I have extended my analysis on to my EURJPY chart. This one is completely independent of anyones input. It is solely me trying to apply what I've been doing on the GBPUSD, to another chart.

The EURJPY has been hovering around the 125.00 level now since the start of play Monday, and has been very whippy for me. Setting up numerous swing trades, and stopping me out.

Scenario 1
Looking for history to repeat itself. Looking at the 125.00 price has previously attempted to punch through that price on 5 seperate occasions now, and with each attempt I think the resistance gets stronger. Following each attempt price then quickly ran away from that level as if scared to death of being there. So my downside prediction is a quick move down the 122.0 level which looking across the chart has been a holding point before further movement. On the way down price should be able to collect all 3 swing targets. (prediction: this is the scenario I am most likely leaning towards if the past is anything to go off)

Scenario 2
Price could continue to move around at this level for another few weeks unless any news comes out that can influence it. Looking back at my chart, the last time price was hanging around at this level like this was back at the beginning of Feb 09, and it bounced off 125.00 a good 4 or 5 times before breaking through. That lasted into the middle of March 09. (prediction: the most unlikely outcome)

Scenario 3
If I see price make a sizeable move up through 125.00 without stopping it could potentially move on up to 127.00 without too much stopping it. That should see me be able to make at least 2 swing targets, possible 3 depending on the entry. (prediction: 2nd favourite option)

So there it is. My attempt at deciphering the code of EURJPY. It feels different knowing that I have 3 different options of what could happen, instead of just trading with blinkers on and wondering why I'm being constantly kicked in the face at a certain price area.

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