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Friday, 30 April 2010

It's been a little while

It's been nearly a week since I posted.

The start to this week was outstanding. First thing Monday morning I got a few false trades before getting positioned on the big moves that happened. A lot of pips were made :)

Then Tuesday afternoon I started to feel the full effects of the dreaded man flu. I cut my trading short on Wednesday, and decided to take the rest of the week off to rest, and get some beechams in me. I opened the charts again on Thursday morning to manage trade that was still open from the previous day, and on the GBP a text book bias change trade set up, so I had to take it.

Here's the result


Saturday, 24 April 2010

It's weekend. Yaaaayyyyyyyy

Looking back over last week, it was a positive week. Friday put a slight damp fart on the week, but it still ended positive, and that's the main thing, especially given the last few weeks results I've had. All in all about 500 points was taken back from the market.

But now it's Saturday, and it's been gorgeous again. Sorted out my veggie patch, and got my tomato plants potted into bigger pots ready for their life outside.

Thursday, 22 April 2010

Happier now

In terms of trades taken, yesterday wasn't that busy, but there was a lot of managing of existing trades from the core swing strategy to be done, and some spill over from Tuesday to tidy up.

Yesterday saw only a total of 3 new trades, one on GBPUS which still has the last two parts of the swing trade open, and two trades on EURJPY. First attempt at EJ got me stopped out on my full position, the second attempt didn't do too badly. Managed to get all three intraday targets, and a first swing target in.

Today is probably going to be much quieter, as I'm not in my usual location. Me and my GF had to go to her dad's last nite and stayed over. Although I brought my laptop with me, I think it will be more a case of managing the remaining trade I have open. When I'm in unfamiliar surroundings, I don't feel comfortable, or able to fully focus, so today may largely be a day off.

Wednesday, 21 April 2010

Kerrrrrrchinggggg

Well that was a pretty quick move up. I didn't even get chance to adjust my stops after the T1 Intrad was hit before T2 got taken. Currently T3 is gone as well and T1 swinger hit.

Just having a play about with Ninja and the option to show the trade levels on the chart.


Take 2

Price actually has come bck down to the long trigger level again pre 08:30am. So I can start looking for new trades.

Started marking off the H's & L's and price developed a full BC entry for mejust on the long trigger level, so as strange as these things are, the entry level is exactly the same as the one I missed, and I got a slightly tighter stop by 5 pips into the boot as well.

GBPUSD


I see a theme..

The theme of my snatch trades from yesterday afternoon seems to be T1 intraday hit. Price retreats. Intraday stopped out. New trade setup. Trigger. T1 hit. Price retreats. Stopped out.

Looking at my open trades for this morning, it looks like my remaining swing trades on GU and EJ were stopped out. AUDJPY still going nicely. Already had 1 full swing trade reach targets, and the new entry signal from yesterday has now just hit 2nd swing target. So I'm loving those crazy Aussies this morning :)

Got to the charts at 06:30am GMT, and 2 trades had already set up and triggered on GU and EJ. Slightly frustratingly on GU, as because my live account is still through MT4, and each individual order entry has to be typed and submitted, I didn't get a chance to get my entries in. Where as my demo account that I'm using with Ninja is far easier. It's just a right click on the price, and done. Grrrrrr.

So, I was looking for that move up to T1 then the retreat back, to hopefully entry level again to look for a chance to get a new entry. Annoyingly, it looks to be bucking the early morning, pre 7:30 trend I've seen previously, and going on to hit T2 and not showing a sign of price retraceing....yet!

So, it looks like the day may be over before it's started for me on GU and EJ, unless price makes a dramatic down turn, and starts flirting with short trigger levels, or at the very least back to the pre 10am long trigger, to come back into that ATR potential range.

Still got an open GJ, EU & last part of AJ core swinger to manage, so all is not lost completely.

Might be a lazy morning for me.

Here's a couple of pics of how the 2 snatch trades looked to me.

GBPUSD



EURJPY



Tuesday, 20 April 2010

GBPUSD Missed trade

short video showing a missed trade for me on GBPUSD this morning.

EURJPY trade video

Back to being able to do some videos now the easter school holiday chaos has settled and I have some piece and quiet.

This video is from a snatch trade on EURJPY from early this morning. It shows my previous attempts and explains how I identified the trade and why I took it.


Best start for weeks. Official !!!

Powering up the charts this morning was a joy :) It's officially my best start to a week for at least 3 weeks.

GBPJP swinger hit T2 overnight.

AUDJPY core swinger hit all 3 targets

GBPUSD intraday snatch hit all 3 targets. This was a trade that setup at around half 6 ish last night. I happened to be at the computer screen when it set up. As the swinger from the morning was already running, it was just an intraday trade for me.

So far this morning then I've had a new GBPUSD intraday trade @ .5355 that has hit all 3 targets. With the new 10am trigger levels there was another intraday trade opportunity for me @ .5385, still within the ATR limits for intraday trades ,but I wasn't quick enough and missed the entry. So I'll be keeping my eye on that one to see if it comes back down to below the trigger level before reaching T1.

EURJPY | early morning intraday targets hit and swing trade still open. Entry was @ .125.00. A new intraday trade has setup on the new 10am data with an entry @ 125.35. Again still within ATR limits for intraday trades. This is still open, no targets hit.

A better start to the week.

Well the start of a new week has brought renewed confidence for me in my trading. Having spent last week in the LTR with Phil and the other guys, I got back on track after what was a pretty horrid start to last week. I realised around Thursday time, that I had been deviating from my trade plan without realising it, and was, for want of a better word, "freestyling" my trading. Meaning I was making it up as I went along, based on what I thought was my trading plan.

Some of my early morning trades from Monday 19th


EURUSD short @.3445. This is still open, and hasn't quite reached any targets yet, but has been managed as per the rules.


GBPJPY long @ 140.15. This hit 1st target, and has since been stopped out based off my trade management.


This pair set up another ideal bar entry that triggered long @ 140.65. This happened around 2pm GMT.


AUDJPY short @ 84.35. This didn't quite manage to hit any targets, and similar to the GJ, has since triggered a new long trade based off new ideal bar setups.


GBPUSD short @.5230. This managed to hit my 1st intraday target, before stopping that part of my trade out. Swinger was still open until not that long ago. New long trade has now triggered @.5280, with 1st and 2nd intraday targets being hit. Daily ATR has reached >65% and price seems to have responded to this level by slowing down, and holding where it is as of 4pm GMT. (hopefully see some of those 4:30 moves :) )


So although a slight negative points return so far, I'm a lot happier with the wa I have traded my plan

Friday, 16 April 2010

End to a very poor week

Well it's Friday afternoon again. It's very sunny, and I hasten to add, quite warm outside. As this week draws to an end, I am reflecting on what happened during it.

I haven't made that many updates this week as my head just hasn't been in it. I have had plenty of trades this week, but after Monday and Tuesday I was very low in terms of my mentality towards trading.

It's been another negative week, and quite a heavy negative week, in no part thanks to the mess at the start of the week.

The end of the week has seen me get my head back together, start trading from my plan again, rather than venturing away from it, which is what happened at the start of the week.

I have continued to push forward with my plan to migrate to a different broker and start using the NinjaTrader platform, but with it has come a realisation that I may have to adjust my trading style significantly.

I'm currently trading 5 pairs using micro lots to preserve my capital. However, the new broker I am going to doesn't support micro lots trading NinjaTrader, so I am going to have to stick to trading just one currency pair, which is going to be GBPUSD until such time as I have built up my capital to start adding more currency pairs again.For at least the next week I'll still be trading my full list of pairs until I get the new account setup and NinjaTrader activated for live trading.

I'm continuing to use Ninja for my charting, and Alpari is simply there to place my live trades now. Like I said this is going to be for at least the next week.

Currently just one trade live, a short trade on GBPUSD. It's hit T1 and T2 intraday targets, hopefully it will carry on making new lows and take out T3 and with any luck a T1 swing target. I'll be taking a look back at the charts at around 6pm to actively mange the trade to a close before the markets close. That's if it's still open when I get to it.

Here's hoping for a good weekend.

Thursday, 15 April 2010

Bit calmer now

Ok so I've calmed down a bit now from the beginning of the week.

I've spent the quiet time yesterday and this morning diving a little deeper into NinjaTrader, and to be honest the more I dive into it, the more impressed I am with it. I have managed to get it setup pretty much how I want it now. I've got my custom ATM strategies setup, so I when I place an order, my targets are auto set, and trades seem a lot easier to manage. I'll try post a video later on showing what I mean.

Had a nice trade this morning on GBPUSD. All 3 intraday targets now met, and the 1st of my swing targets met. Gone a bit quiet again now. We'll see what happens after lunch time.

Tuesday, 13 April 2010

More of the same

Well today seems to have started pretty much where yesterday left off for me. Really badly. Only a handful of trades today and every one is either negative or has stopped me out for a full loss.

I'll try and get some videos up of the trades that have gone wrong to look back on and see whether it is user error, or the Forex gods laughing at me.

General demeanor today is very poor, and negative. Starting to wonder if this is ever going to be a long term option for me based on these results.

The pisser is, that I know other people using the same strategy that have had a fabulous start to the week. So I have been trying to find what the variable is. That tiny difference that is making one person profitable, and the other not when using the very same trading strategy. My findings....the person that is actually making pips is using a different broker, whos data starts an hour earlier than mine. Thats the tiny difference that is causing me to lose pips!!!

So I need to find a broker that has a data feed that starts at 10pm GMT on Sunday. Any suggestions????

Monday, 12 April 2010

SHIT

True to form my start to the week has been shit again.

300 points have vanished on a stupidly quiet day. The last few weeks just seem like when I start my week, it starts shit.

New week again...

Well the weekend is over, and I must say weather wise it's been great. I managed to get my veggie patch planted on Saturday.

Spent the afternooon on Saturday doing some more research on NinjaTrader and going through all the online help sections. The more into it I get the more I'm actually starting to really like Ninja. I'm still just using it for charting at the moment though while I get used to the interface, but I must say, I'm getting used to it very quickly. The next biggest thing to get used to is the live trading with it. The amount of different options and data that is available is immense.
I particularily like the ATM strategy mode where I can develop my own ATM strategy and auto implement it on every trade I take.

On a trading front, I can't help but recommend Phil Newton's website. I have been a member for over 2 years, and it is an invaluable source of help and knowledge.

Trading wise, pretty quiet morning this far. Only 3 trades triggered and not really doing much. GJ, GC and EJ, all long. Lets see what the afternoon does.

Saturday, 10 April 2010

Saturday morning sunshine....

Well I don't actually believe it. The sun is shinning again in Manchester on this lovely Saturday morning. Unbelievable!

Just doing a quick update on how the two trades from yesterday faired by the end of play.

EURUSD


Well this pretty much did as expected and then some more. At the start of the morning I thought there would be no way that price could get back up to 1.35 by the end of yesterday, and looka at the chart. I was wrong! but a happy wrong. Due to it being a Friday and the time of day trading in the UK, I managed the last part of my trade to eventually close out at 1.3480, which was the second target. That happened at around 3:30pm. I didn't want to be watching my chart late into a Friday evening, so this was perfect for me.

An early finish for the weekend as this was my only trade from yesterday.

EURJPY


The EURJPY trade was a left over from Thursday. Again this pair has done far more than I had anticipated. Based on my TA, I had decided the most likely scenario was for price to move up towards the 61% fib or 125.00 price zone and stall for a while, or at least for the rest of the day yesterday.

So based of that I had removed 2/3rds of my position at first target, and was letting the last third run, just in case price decided to carry on going with out stopping at 125.00. Which with hindsight is exactly what happened. Again due to the fact it was Friday and it was late afternoon, I made a decision to manage the last part of the trade to the second target at 125.30, which triggered at around 3:30 GMT.

So that was my day yesterday. Actually a nice end to the week. If we ignore Thursday and my emotional mistakes, it would have ended up a positive week. Just.

Friday, 9 April 2010

What?.....

So GBPUSD has decided to move up towards the upper level of the range that it's been in, and has gone through it. Was my decision to stay out of GBPUSD till this level was reached a good one?....with hindsight it's easy to say no because I could hav made some points, but at the time I made my decision based off my TA, and I still feel it was the correct one. So come 11am GMT when my new 4hr bar starts, I'll re-assess and see what the ATR is like, and see if an entry is setting up.
"better to be out of a trade wishing you were in, rather than being in a trade wishing you were out" a little quote from someone I trust.

My only new trade of the morning so far is EURUSD. I had a good trade earlier in the week on EU which had hit all my targets, and price has now formed a new entry bar for me based off the low of last week. My entry is long as my short levels for the week have already been achieved, so I will be buying the rally in the downtrend here.


I've put the fibs on here again to see where my targets will land in relation to the 50% and 61% fibs. First target is looking like it's landing pretty much on the 61% fib, and more interestingly, third target is just below the weekly open of 1.35. So maybe a retest of the 1.35 level today. We'll see.

Also, it looks like GBPCHF has finally hit it's third target, so that's a good trade for me from Tuesday.


Wakey wakey, rise and shine

Well it's 6:30am in Manchester, there's a little bit of light frost on the ground, and EURJPY has done what I thought and hit my first target at the smaller 50% fib level, and price has stalled there.

I closed out 2/3rd of my position at 124.80, and I have now moved my stop on the last 3rd to entry, so a breakeven trade on the last part at worst, and I can see where the price takes me.



I've still got the final part of my GBPCHF trade from Tuesday open, and at this moment is within 15 points of hitting it's final target.

As for GBPUSD this morning. I won't be jumping into any trades like yesterday. I need to get back to doing some of the TA I've ben practicing as that seems to have worked last week, and it has certainly worked this week when I've done it. Plus it's a Friday, so any trades I open today will be closed before I finish tonight. No holding open positions over the weekend for me.

So I'll power up the brew and toast now, and get to it!

Thursday, 8 April 2010

EURJPY entry options.

I'm looking at EJ at the moment as my only pair to set up a new entry signal. I've got a couple of options here that I'm looking at.

The last competed 4hr bar formed on last weeks low. I've been looking at using the previous weeks highs/lows as secondary ideal bar entry signals. So using that information I can place a pending long entry at the high of hat complete bar. No short trades as ATR rule has been exhausted down for me.

So pending long trade. Potential targets?

Option 1) I've taken fibs from the high of the weeks move down to see where 50% retrace would get me in relation to targets. Seeing as my swing target for EJ is 50 points, a first target would see me to 124.80 which would be under the 38% fib, while the 2nd target of 125.30 would still be under the 50% fib, but would mean price going through the 125 level, which based off my research from last week, is a fairly strong area in terms of price action for support and resistance.





Option 2) Take the fibs from the start of the current move down. Now this is interesting. The 50% fib lines up nearly exactly here to my first target, while second target takes me past the 61% fib.


So I've got two pretty strong options in terms of price action that I need to decide on. I think the sensible thing to do would be to take off 2/3rds at my first target, then see how price moves as it reaches 125.00, and then the second target area of 125.30.

That's IF the trade triggers long.

This was a trade that actually triggered long late this afternoon, and is still open going into the evening. I'm no longer at the trading desk, so the next time I'll be checking this is tomorrow morning.

Difference between tick and 3m chart.

Grrrrrrrrrr

As you can probably tell from the header, this is a blog by one frustrated little man. I'm about to highlight the difference between a 3m chart and an 89 tick chart. One has cost me 150 points, the other would have had me at least 90 points in the bag by now.

This was a snatch setup from this morning on the GBPUSD.

3 minute chart



The yellow lines on this chart are the trigger levels. In this instance I was looking for a short entry below the short trigger of 1.52111. Price took a dive to 1.5179 leaving me frustrated at not being able to get a entry. I have highlighted the full BC and the BO pullback entry. Both were the same price. The red line is my entry, the blue line is my stop @ 1.5200. Green lines are obviously my target levels. Price stopped me out on the retrace to 1.5202.

89 tick chart



The red line is the short trigger at the same level of 1.52111. The difference in entry level is quite a lot. Entry here would have been around 1.52 compared to the 3m entry of 1.5175. All 3 intraday targets would have been easily me from the 89t chart entry.

So that is my one big annoyance this morning. I'm now looking at having to wait for a new 3m short trigger by way of a full BC or what is looking like an alternate BC with an entry at 1.5145. I now only have 15% of the daily ATR left to take me to the 65% level.

Reason for not using 89t chart.
I'm currently testing some new combos of broker and trading platform. The 89t chart was from a different trading software, and the data is not from a live account yet. Also the 4hour bars are completed an hour later than my current ones. So at the moment my 4h bars are 3am-7am/7am-11am/11am-3pm etc. The bars from the other broker are 4am-8am/8am-12pm/12pm-4pm etc.

But all in all it's not made me a happy person this morning working with the tools that I have. It's pretty much convinced me that I need to change/upgrade my trading tools to take advantage of these potentially better entry positions.

Phew! rant over

Wednesday, 7 April 2010

I've found a new toy.

I've found a new toy. I can update my blog directly from my iPhone using the blogwriter app from the app store. It's pretty cool for a geek like me. I already use logmein ignition to check my trading server when out and about from my iPhone, just to manage my open and pending trades.

Any way I finally had my short trade on CADJPY trigger this afternoon. Around 4:30 GMT. My entry is @ 93.15, and as I play with my app at 8:15pm, it's hit first target and fingers crossed it follows through like I hope based off my TA.

Anyhoo, I'm goin back to watching reruns of Friends now on E4.

A bit of payback...

I've managed to get a bit of payback for my horrid start to the week this afternoon. My third aatempt at an entry on GU has rewarded me with all 3 intraday targets hit, and a first swing target. So +140 so far. Not quiet a 50% refund on the false trades this morning, but hopefully still another 2 swing targets left.

Managed to get 2/3rds of my trade off at first target level for EJ. Decided to do it this way as my first target took me back down to 125.00, which is a nice support level now, since it's managed to go through it last week. I anticipated price stalling or rebounding briefly off that level so just the last third open on EJ.

EU from yesterday has finally moved down past first and second targets, just one more to go, and GC thus far waiting for second and third targets to be hit.

Just had a new pending trade setup on CADJPY. Based off my previous blog entry on what I thought of CADJPY, I'm only looking for shorts, as price has failed to get above the 94.20 level now, and due to the size of the move up.

So, not a bad afternoon, but in the grand scheme of things, in total still down for the week so far, so I'd like a refund please Mr Forex. I still have my receipt as proof of purchase. See......

Mid week

It's Wednesday, that means it's hump day. We are at that mid week, crest of the hill before it's all downhill to the weekend baby, yeahhhhhh. lol

On a work note, hopefully today isn't as slow as yesterday. As I thought the GBPUSD did some nice 4 o'clock moves yesterday afternoon back up, unfortunately, after being stopped out on a short setup, I then missed the move up. Very unhappy bunny at that as it was within my normal trading hours as well....grrrrrrrrr

Other things worth a mention. CADJPY pissed me about again, but it's sat right on the crest of a very large move down I feel. Since mid Feb it's gained over a 1000 points without any trouble, and based off past history when price has moved in large chunks, there has been at least a 50% retracement, but it's just balanced on that whippy cliff edge at the moment.

EJ and GJ still the same, although it's looking like EJ could be developing a new entry signal for me, GJ nothing yet.

My only 2 trades on then as of now are EU T1 hit, and GC T1 hit. And that's all she wrote.

On another side note. This week is Masters week :) For anyone not interested in golf, it's the 1st Major of the year, and Tigers comeback after his personal life fart It's on Thurs-Sun. It's on in the P of the M here in the UK, so it shouldn't interfere with work either. POW!



update: Well EJ finally setup a new entry signal for me, so I'm now short EJ. GU has given me two signals this morning, both had full stops hit. The first entry short, and the second long. Annoyingly the long entry got taken out by a rather irritating price spike about 6 mins after it had triggered. Don't kow whether there was any news out that caused that, or whether it was the data coming from my broker.

To be fair I'm looking at leaning towards changing broker to Forex.com so I can use Ninja Trader, and leaving the Alpari/MT4 behind now.

Tuesday, 6 April 2010

Easter over, but still got eggs!

Well that's Easter over for another year, but I've still got eggs left so all is not lost :)

The grand prix on Sunday was pretty good. It was nice to see som action for a change. Watching Hamilton steam through the ranks, but it's now time to start work again.

Easter Monday was a bank holiday, so I didn't do any trading, instead choosing to spend it with my family, so today is the first day of my week. As expected this morning has been pretty quiet. Looking at the charts from yesterday, not too much happened until last nights Asian session. GBPJPY and EURJPY have moved nicely, from the trades that set up yesterday, but as I wasn't trading, it's just a watch scenario for me and see if I can get a new entry signal.

GBPUSD has had a little fit early this morning, but having now done >65% of a days move down, I expect to see some sideways movement for most of the morning, then may be a little retracement to test the 1.5200/5250 area.

Apart from that, not much else happening.

On a news front, here in the UK, the Prime Minister has just announced the date for the general election as May 6th, so all the news stations are now pontificating about policies etc.

Saturday, 3 April 2010

Watching the F1 Quali

Sat on a cold, rainy Saturday morning in Manchester watching the qauli for the Malaysian F1 GP. They're having slightly more rain than we are, but they have the heat as well, where as we have the bitter cold.

Also been doing some more research, and have taken another look at Sierra Charts. I looked at them 2 years ago, and at the time I wasn't sure what I was looking for, and it all looked a bit to advanced for me. Funny how things change, as I'm now looking at it thinking it looks ok. Price...check. Varied TF...check. I've signed up for the demo, so I'll see how it looks next week in real time.

I might still have to use Alpari as my broker to enter my trades, and if it works ok, Sierra for my charting. Not ideal, but it's one option I'm investigating.

Looked at Interactive Brokers yesterday, but they require a $10'000 USD or UK equivilant to open an account. Not in a position to do that at the moment, so they're out, which is dissappointing as I really wanted to use them as their data feed can be used with different platforms like Sierra, and Ninja and TS. Oh well.

I'll continue to loo.

Looks like Mark Webber has just qualified in P1 for the race tomorrow. Both Ferarri's and MacLarns are at the back of the grid. It's gonna be a cracking race I think.

Friday, 2 April 2010

Trading Platform/Broker Research

While I've got a bit of time with my long weekend I will also be doing some research into new brokers and trading platforms.

I've been using Alpari as my broker and MetaTrader as my trading platform for 2 years now, and while it was a fine combo for me when I started out, and still performs 95% of the tasks I need now, there are still some things missing.

Minimum things I'm looking for:-

1) More varied order entries that fit in with my trading style.
2) Slightly better charting tools in trading software.
3) Ability to trade variety of lot sizes.
4) Reasonable fees.
5) More varied timeframes including tick charts without the need for time shift indicators

Online Brokers looking at

1) Thinkorswim
2) Interactive Brokers
3) MB Trading
4) E*Trade (no longer operating in the UK. All UK accounts will either be closed or transferred to TD Waterhouse on 18th April)

Good Friday

It looks like yesterday afternoon saw some real nice moves on most the pairs I trade.

The morning had been pretty quiet to tell the truth. A couple of false short trades on EURUSD based off some TA I'd done, and an intraday position on GBPUSD that managed to hit 1st target before stopping out.

I was pretty confident on the potential scenarios I had identified. I knew that it would realistically take something news based to really get the price moving, and that's what it did. I think there was soem euro news that came out mid/late afternoon that was better than expected.

Typically I missed all this action as I had a doctors appointment that was scheduled for 4pm GMT, and as I'm not trading now until Tuesday, it was an early finish for the easter holidays for me.

Am I angry I missed these moves?....No, not really. The market isn't going anywhere, and will still be there on Tuesday. One thing I can guarantee is that there will always be more moves to take advantage of.

How am I feeling?....Honesty, in light of these moves and the TA I have been practicing, I'm feeling pretty relaxed. Even happy, as I confirms some of the findings that I came up with on where price could move to. So another little confidence boost :)

So I'm going to go away and enjoy my Easter weekend with my family, and come back Tuesday with enthusiasm.

Thursday, 1 April 2010

TA on EURUSD

Continuing again with my TA development, I am now looking at the EURUSD.

First thing to note is that price has made it's way to the 1.3500 level. Looking across my chart to find out what has happened at this level before, and what is likely to happen this time, I can see that when price has been at the 1.35 level it has tended to use 1.3450 as a support level.

So I could expect 1 of 3 different scenarios here now.

Scenario 1

Price will move sideways along this 1.35 level, creating some sideways price action before deciding on a new direction to take.

Scenario 2

Price will move down from the 1.35 area to test 1.3450, before rebounding off that support level to return to 1.35, with the possibility of punching straight through and continuing the upwards move.

Scenario 3

Price will make a break for the 1.35 level, and continu through it to at least the 1st little resistance area which I see as this weeks high at 1.3560.

Based off the previous history I am leaning towards scenario 2 as the most likely option at the moment.

How am I going to trade this scenario?

Using the 1.35 level as my ideal bar trigger, I can set my entry short for the low of the last completed 4hr bar, then use the 3m chart to try and get a low risk entry.
1st target is 10% of weekly ATR which is 35 points for me. With my entry now @ 1.3485, my 1st swing target will line up nicely with the support level of 1.3450 that I have identified, so I will remove 2/3rds of my trade at this level, and let the last 1/3rd run to completion.