Friday, 30 April 2010
Saturday, 24 April 2010
Thursday, 22 April 2010
Wednesday, 21 April 2010
Just having a play about with Ninja and the option to show the trade levels on the chart.
Started marking off the H's & L's and price developed a full BC entry for mejust on the long trigger level, so as strange as these things are, the entry level is exactly the same as the one I missed, and I got a slightly tighter stop by 5 pips into the boot as well.
Looking at my open trades for this morning, it looks like my remaining swing trades on GU and EJ were stopped out. AUDJPY still going nicely. Already had 1 full swing trade reach targets, and the new entry signal from yesterday has now just hit 2nd swing target. So I'm loving those crazy Aussies this morning :)
Got to the charts at 06:30am GMT, and 2 trades had already set up and triggered on GU and EJ. Slightly frustratingly on GU, as because my live account is still through MT4, and each individual order entry has to be typed and submitted, I didn't get a chance to get my entries in. Where as my demo account that I'm using with Ninja is far easier. It's just a right click on the price, and done. Grrrrrr.
So, I was looking for that move up to T1 then the retreat back, to hopefully entry level again to look for a chance to get a new entry. Annoyingly, it looks to be bucking the early morning, pre 7:30 trend I've seen previously, and going on to hit T2 and not showing a sign of price retraceing....yet!
So, it looks like the day may be over before it's started for me on GU and EJ, unless price makes a dramatic down turn, and starts flirting with short trigger levels, or at the very least back to the pre 10am long trigger, to come back into that ATR potential range.
Still got an open GJ, EU & last part of AJ core swinger to manage, so all is not lost completely.
Might be a lazy morning for me.
Here's a couple of pics of how the 2 snatch trades looked to me.
Tuesday, 20 April 2010
Back to being able to do some videos now the easter school holiday chaos has settled and I have some piece and quiet.
This video is from a snatch trade on EURJPY from early this morning. It shows my previous attempts and explains how I identified the trade and why I took it.
Powering up the charts this morning was a joy :) It's officially my best start to a week for at least 3 weeks.
GBPJP swinger hit T2 overnight.
AUDJPY core swinger hit all 3 targets
GBPUSD intraday snatch hit all 3 targets. This was a trade that setup at around half 6 ish last night. I happened to be at the computer screen when it set up. As the swinger from the morning was already running, it was just an intraday trade for me.
So far this morning then I've had a new GBPUSD intraday trade @ .5355 that has hit all 3 targets. With the new 10am trigger levels there was another intraday trade opportunity for me @ .5385, still within the ATR limits for intraday trades ,but I wasn't quick enough and missed the entry. So I'll be keeping my eye on that one to see if it comes back down to below the trigger level before reaching T1.
EURJPY | early morning intraday targets hit and swing trade still open. Entry was @ .125.00. A new intraday trade has setup on the new 10am data with an entry @ 125.35. Again still within ATR limits for intraday trades. This is still open, no targets hit.
Some of my early morning trades from Monday 19th
EURUSD short @.3445. This is still open, and hasn't quite reached any targets yet, but has been managed as per the rules.
GBPJPY long @ 140.15. This hit 1st target, and has since been stopped out based off my trade management.
This pair set up another ideal bar entry that triggered long @ 140.65. This happened around 2pm GMT.
AUDJPY short @ 84.35. This didn't quite manage to hit any targets, and similar to the GJ, has since triggered a new long trade based off new ideal bar setups.
GBPUSD short @.5230. This managed to hit my 1st intraday target, before stopping that part of my trade out. Swinger was still open until not that long ago. New long trade has now triggered @.5280, with 1st and 2nd intraday targets being hit. Daily ATR has reached >65% and price seems to have responded to this level by slowing down, and holding where it is as of 4pm GMT. (hopefully see some of those 4:30 moves :) )
So although a slight negative points return so far, I'm a lot happier with the wa I have traded my plan
Friday, 16 April 2010
Thursday, 15 April 2010
Tuesday, 13 April 2010
Monday, 12 April 2010
Saturday, 10 April 2010
Friday, 9 April 2010
Thursday, 8 April 2010
The last competed 4hr bar formed on last weeks low. I've been looking at using the previous weeks highs/lows as secondary ideal bar entry signals. So using that information I can place a pending long entry at the high of hat complete bar. No short trades as ATR rule has been exhausted down for me.
So pending long trade. Potential targets?
Option 1) I've taken fibs from the high of the weeks move down to see where 50% retrace would get me in relation to targets. Seeing as my swing target for EJ is 50 points, a first target would see me to 124.80 which would be under the 38% fib, while the 2nd target of 125.30 would still be under the 50% fib, but would mean price going through the 125 level, which based off my research from last week, is a fairly strong area in terms of price action for support and resistance.
Option 2) Take the fibs from the start of the current move down. Now this is interesting. The 50% fib lines up nearly exactly here to my first target, while second target takes me past the 61% fib.
So I've got two pretty strong options in terms of price action that I need to decide on. I think the sensible thing to do would be to take off 2/3rds at my first target, then see how price moves as it reaches 125.00, and then the second target area of 125.30.
That's IF the trade triggers long.
As you can probably tell from the header, this is a blog by one frustrated little man. I'm about to highlight the difference between a 3m chart and an 89 tick chart. One has cost me 150 points, the other would have had me at least 90 points in the bag by now.
This was a snatch setup from this morning on the GBPUSD.
3 minute chart
The yellow lines on this chart are the trigger levels. In this instance I was looking for a short entry below the short trigger of 1.52111. Price took a dive to 1.5179 leaving me frustrated at not being able to get a entry. I have highlighted the full BC and the BO pullback entry. Both were the same price. The red line is my entry, the blue line is my stop @ 1.5200. Green lines are obviously my target levels. Price stopped me out on the retrace to 1.5202.
89 tick chart
The red line is the short trigger at the same level of 1.52111. The difference in entry level is quite a lot. Entry here would have been around 1.52 compared to the 3m entry of 1.5175. All 3 intraday targets would have been easily me from the 89t chart entry.
So that is my one big annoyance this morning. I'm now looking at having to wait for a new 3m short trigger by way of a full BC or what is looking like an alternate BC with an entry at 1.5145. I now only have 15% of the daily ATR left to take me to the 65% level.
Reason for not using 89t chart.
I'm currently testing some new combos of broker and trading platform. The 89t chart was from a different trading software, and the data is not from a live account yet. Also the 4hour bars are completed an hour later than my current ones. So at the moment my 4h bars are 3am-7am/7am-11am/11am-3pm etc. The bars from the other broker are 4am-8am/8am-12pm/12pm-4pm etc.
But all in all it's not made me a happy person this morning working with the tools that I have. It's pretty much convinced me that I need to change/upgrade my trading tools to take advantage of these potentially better entry positions.
Phew! rant over
Wednesday, 7 April 2010
Any way I finally had my short trade on CADJPY trigger this afternoon. Around 4:30 GMT. My entry is @ 93.15, and as I play with my app at 8:15pm, it's hit first target and fingers crossed it follows through like I hope based off my TA.
Anyhoo, I'm goin back to watching reruns of Friends now on E4.
Managed to get 2/3rds of my trade off at first target level for EJ. Decided to do it this way as my first target took me back down to 125.00, which is a nice support level now, since it's managed to go through it last week. I anticipated price stalling or rebounding briefly off that level so just the last third open on EJ.
EU from yesterday has finally moved down past first and second targets, just one more to go, and GC thus far waiting for second and third targets to be hit.
Just had a new pending trade setup on CADJPY. Based off my previous blog entry on what I thought of CADJPY, I'm only looking for shorts, as price has failed to get above the 94.20 level now, and due to the size of the move up.
So, not a bad afternoon, but in the grand scheme of things, in total still down for the week so far, so I'd like a refund please Mr Forex. I still have my receipt as proof of purchase. See......
On a work note, hopefully today isn't as slow as yesterday. As I thought the GBPUSD did some nice 4 o'clock moves yesterday afternoon back up, unfortunately, after being stopped out on a short setup, I then missed the move up. Very unhappy bunny at that as it was within my normal trading hours as well....grrrrrrrrr
Other things worth a mention. CADJPY pissed me about again, but it's sat right on the crest of a very large move down I feel. Since mid Feb it's gained over a 1000 points without any trouble, and based off past history when price has moved in large chunks, there has been at least a 50% retracement, but it's just balanced on that whippy cliff edge at the moment.
EJ and GJ still the same, although it's looking like EJ could be developing a new entry signal for me, GJ nothing yet.
My only 2 trades on then as of now are EU T1 hit, and GC T1 hit. And that's all she wrote.
On another side note. This week is Masters week :) For anyone not interested in golf, it's the 1st Major of the year, and Tigers comeback after his personal life fart It's on Thurs-Sun. It's on in the P of the M here in the UK, so it shouldn't interfere with work either. POW!
update: Well EJ finally setup a new entry signal for me, so I'm now short EJ. GU has given me two signals this morning, both had full stops hit. The first entry short, and the second long. Annoyingly the long entry got taken out by a rather irritating price spike about 6 mins after it had triggered. Don't kow whether there was any news out that caused that, or whether it was the data coming from my broker.
To be fair I'm looking at leaning towards changing broker to Forex.com so I can use Ninja Trader, and leaving the Alpari/MT4 behind now.
Tuesday, 6 April 2010
The grand prix on Sunday was pretty good. It was nice to see som action for a change. Watching Hamilton steam through the ranks, but it's now time to start work again.
Easter Monday was a bank holiday, so I didn't do any trading, instead choosing to spend it with my family, so today is the first day of my week. As expected this morning has been pretty quiet. Looking at the charts from yesterday, not too much happened until last nights Asian session. GBPJPY and EURJPY have moved nicely, from the trades that set up yesterday, but as I wasn't trading, it's just a watch scenario for me and see if I can get a new entry signal.
GBPUSD has had a little fit early this morning, but having now done >65% of a days move down, I expect to see some sideways movement for most of the morning, then may be a little retracement to test the 1.5200/5250 area.
Apart from that, not much else happening.
On a news front, here in the UK, the Prime Minister has just announced the date for the general election as May 6th, so all the news stations are now pontificating about policies etc.
Saturday, 3 April 2010
Also been doing some more research, and have taken another look at Sierra Charts. I looked at them 2 years ago, and at the time I wasn't sure what I was looking for, and it all looked a bit to advanced for me. Funny how things change, as I'm now looking at it thinking it looks ok. Price...check. Varied TF...check. I've signed up for the demo, so I'll see how it looks next week in real time.
I might still have to use Alpari as my broker to enter my trades, and if it works ok, Sierra for my charting. Not ideal, but it's one option I'm investigating.
Looked at Interactive Brokers yesterday, but they require a $10'000 USD or UK equivilant to open an account. Not in a position to do that at the moment, so they're out, which is dissappointing as I really wanted to use them as their data feed can be used with different platforms like Sierra, and Ninja and TS. Oh well.
I'll continue to loo.
Looks like Mark Webber has just qualified in P1 for the race tomorrow. Both Ferarri's and MacLarns are at the back of the grid. It's gonna be a cracking race I think.
Friday, 2 April 2010
I've been using Alpari as my broker and MetaTrader as my trading platform for 2 years now, and while it was a fine combo for me when I started out, and still performs 95% of the tasks I need now, there are still some things missing.
Minimum things I'm looking for:-
1) More varied order entries that fit in with my trading style.
2) Slightly better charting tools in trading software.
3) Ability to trade variety of lot sizes.
4) Reasonable fees.
5) More varied timeframes including tick charts without the need for time shift indicators
Online Brokers looking at
2) Interactive Brokers
3) MB Trading
4) E*Trade (no longer operating in the UK. All UK accounts will either be closed or transferred to TD Waterhouse on 18th April)
The morning had been pretty quiet to tell the truth. A couple of false short trades on EURUSD based off some TA I'd done, and an intraday position on GBPUSD that managed to hit 1st target before stopping out.
I was pretty confident on the potential scenarios I had identified. I knew that it would realistically take something news based to really get the price moving, and that's what it did. I think there was soem euro news that came out mid/late afternoon that was better than expected.
Typically I missed all this action as I had a doctors appointment that was scheduled for 4pm GMT, and as I'm not trading now until Tuesday, it was an early finish for the easter holidays for me.
Am I angry I missed these moves?....No, not really. The market isn't going anywhere, and will still be there on Tuesday. One thing I can guarantee is that there will always be more moves to take advantage of.
How am I feeling?....Honesty, in light of these moves and the TA I have been practicing, I'm feeling pretty relaxed. Even happy, as I confirms some of the findings that I came up with on where price could move to. So another little confidence boost :)
So I'm going to go away and enjoy my Easter weekend with my family, and come back Tuesday with enthusiasm.
Thursday, 1 April 2010
First thing to note is that price has made it's way to the 1.3500 level. Looking across my chart to find out what has happened at this level before, and what is likely to happen this time, I can see that when price has been at the 1.35 level it has tended to use 1.3450 as a support level.
So I could expect 1 of 3 different scenarios here now.
Price will move sideways along this 1.35 level, creating some sideways price action before deciding on a new direction to take.
Price will move down from the 1.35 area to test 1.3450, before rebounding off that support level to return to 1.35, with the possibility of punching straight through and continuing the upwards move.
Price will make a break for the 1.35 level, and continu through it to at least the 1st little resistance area which I see as this weeks high at 1.3560.
Based off the previous history I am leaning towards scenario 2 as the most likely option at the moment.
How am I going to trade this scenario?
Using the 1.35 level as my ideal bar trigger, I can set my entry short for the low of the last completed 4hr bar, then use the 3m chart to try and get a low risk entry.
1st target is 10% of weekly ATR which is 35 points for me. With my entry now @ 1.3485, my 1st swing target will line up nicely with the support level of 1.3450 that I have identified, so I will remove 2/3rds of my trade at this level, and let the last 1/3rd run to completion.