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Thursday, 1 April 2010

TA on EURUSD

Continuing again with my TA development, I am now looking at the EURUSD.

First thing to note is that price has made it's way to the 1.3500 level. Looking across my chart to find out what has happened at this level before, and what is likely to happen this time, I can see that when price has been at the 1.35 level it has tended to use 1.3450 as a support level.

So I could expect 1 of 3 different scenarios here now.

Scenario 1

Price will move sideways along this 1.35 level, creating some sideways price action before deciding on a new direction to take.

Scenario 2

Price will move down from the 1.35 area to test 1.3450, before rebounding off that support level to return to 1.35, with the possibility of punching straight through and continuing the upwards move.

Scenario 3

Price will make a break for the 1.35 level, and continu through it to at least the 1st little resistance area which I see as this weeks high at 1.3560.

Based off the previous history I am leaning towards scenario 2 as the most likely option at the moment.

How am I going to trade this scenario?

Using the 1.35 level as my ideal bar trigger, I can set my entry short for the low of the last completed 4hr bar, then use the 3m chart to try and get a low risk entry.
1st target is 10% of weekly ATR which is 35 points for me. With my entry now @ 1.3485, my 1st swing target will line up nicely with the support level of 1.3450 that I have identified, so I will remove 2/3rds of my trade at this level, and let the last 1/3rd run to completion.

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